I would tend to say that the X/Y theory is not very relevant to scamming. Let me quote an expert at understanding people, namely Terry Pratchett:
There is a saying "You can't fool an honest man" which is much quoted by people who make a profitable living by fooling honest men. Moist never knowingly tried it, anyway. If you did fool an honest man, he tended to complain to the local Watch, and these days they were harder to buy off. Fooling dishonest men was a lot safer and, somehow, more sporting. And, of course, there were so many more of them. You hardly had to aim.
(from the novel "Going Postal")
This is a concise expression of how Nigerian scams operate: they turn the victim into an accomplice. They begin by expressing a need to move around a substantial amount of money from one country to another, discreetly and without fuss. The prospective victim is lured into a scheme which the said victim fuzzily believes to be somewhat dishonest at some point. The scammers are very careful never to say it plainly, of course. This is part of the act, the victim feeling all the more witty and self-confident by having deduced by himself that some foul play was at hand. Self-confidence, and being uprooted from his usual, comfortable life of basic honesty, make the victim more prone to accept outrageous claims and irrational twists.
So I would say that Nigerian scams work because people are greedy, excitable and trespassers of moral boundaries. They crave the thrill of dabbling in crime and this makes them forget all cautiousness.
On the other hand, the "Microsoft call-centre scam" relies on people being timid, anxious and natural followers. Most people utterly fear having to assume the consequences of their choices. So, in times of disquiet due to a (perceived) threat, especially one involving guilt (in the scam, the first thing that the scammer says is "there is a problem coming from your computer"(*)), they will be ready to follow to the letter the nearest authority figure, which the scammer tries hard to incarnate.
As Benjamin Franklin, another smart guy good at dealing with people, famously said:
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
and while old Benji tries to put it under a disapproving moral light, he mechanically stresses the point, which is that people will give up quite a lot to purchase a little temporary safety, even if they have to purchase it from the very man who plunged them into danger. That's the Microsoft call centre scam all right: the victim complies to the whims of the scammer because they try to buy his indulgence (for an imaginary crime !) by their subservience.
(*) I have been phone-called by these scammers every fortnight or so, since at least last year. As a joke, it grows old.