Papers. In addition to @Dogeatcat world's excellent answer, here are some more papers:
Matt Weir, Sudhir Aggarwal, Breno de Medeiros, Bill Glodek, Password Cracking Using Probabilistic Context-Free Grammars, IEEE Security & Privacy 2009.
Arvind Narayanan, Vitaly Shmatikov, Fast Dictionary Attacks on Passwords Using Time-Space Tradeoff, CCS 2005.
Matteo Dell’Amico, Pietro Michiardi, Yves Roudier, Password Strength: An Empirical Analysis, Infocom 2010. (Thanks to @Martin Carpenter for this one.)
Manjesh Kumar Hanawal and Rajesh Sundaresan, Randomised attacks on passwords, Technical report TR-PME-2010-11, DRDO-IISc, 2010.
C. Davies and R. Ganesan, Bapasswd: A new proactive password checker, NCSC 1993.
I'd start with the paper @Dogeatcatworld mentions, but then read the ones I cited above.
Tools. I believe John the Ripper implements a Markov-model based mode. See also MiddleChild.
Tips. Here are some tips to help you find research papers, in the future. I'd start by going to Google Scholar, Microsoft Academic Search, and Citeseer. Enter in some search terms and see if you can find any papers that look relevant (when you see some candidates, reading the abstract can often tell you if it will be useful to you). When you find some papers that are on-topic or at least nearby, read the related work section of those papers to find older papers that might also be relevant. Also, when you find papers that are relevant, use these web services to list other papers that cite them; sometimes that can help you find newer papers that might be relevant. Hopefully this will help you do a literature search in the future!