The Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR), or any Value-at Risk (VaR) model, whether based on MC (Monte Carlo Method), Bayesian statistics, or other sound variable-crunching, model-bound, formulaic risk analysis -- any of these will culminate is a more-efficient risk calculation.
If you are a member of ISC2 (e.g., CISSP), you can check out CyVaR by PivotPoint Analytics (used to be CyberPoint Intl but now a division of) -- http://go.pivotpointra.com/lp-isc2-member-benefit
CyVaR, similar to RiskLens, is a way of engaging information risk in a VaR model. There is also a ton of information in the following three books (increasing in efficiency):
- Measuring and Managing Information Risk
- Cyber-Risk Informatics: Engineering Evaluation with Data Science
- How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
Book one would be the most-actionable of the three today, but that may change soon. In the book, you will commonly see vulnerabilities treated as a single variable called Vulnerability, which is a variable among several that bubble up to FAIR's version of likelihood, what the FAIR standard refers to as Loss Event Frequency.
What you need to know about Loss Event Frequency (LEF) is that LEF dictates not only "how" likely, but "how often in frequency". A generic likelihood variable would leave a questioner hanging if an event is "likely" to happen today, this week, this month, this year, this decade, or some other unspecified date. It doesn't say how many exact events will occur. LEF changes all of this -- it gives the decision makers the power to understand how often and how many times (e.g., per year) a loss event will occur.
While I won't likely convince you in this single answer, the Vulnerability variable is difficult to control through mitigation (the Open FAIR standard refers to these as vulnerability controls) which would affect the underlying Difficulty variable. If a Threat Community's (TCom) Threat Capability (TCap) variable overcomes the Difficulty variable, then any TCom with a sufficiently-advanced TCap will cause Vulnerability to rise above 90 percent (often to 100 percent) and thus a loss event will almost certainly occur on this side of the LEF equation.
Let me put this in context for you. Let's say that the Dukes (aka CozyBear aka APT 29) decide that a web-app entry point will grant them a web shell against a target US-based financial services company. A few officers of the Dukes (i.e., handlers) have led a few confidential assets in Eastern Europe to believe that they are participating in an online carding forum. One of the assets has some webappsec experience and is handed a fully-cracked webappsec scanner, Acunetix, at the latest version. The asset runs it against a list of financial services websites provided to the actor by the handlers, who used a previous confidential asset team to conduct the reconnaissance necessary to build a list they are proud of.
After about three weeks, the asset is confident that many webappsec vulnerabilities could be used to upload a webshell, but some of them are SQL injection and have non-standard RDBMS backends, such as PGSQL and DB2. Perhaps one of these also has a web-app firewall (WAF) in place. The Eastern European asset does not have the TCap to bypass the WAF or to load a web shell through these vectors. However, after reporting through the forum (our secondary TCom) up the chain and back around to the Dukes (the primary TCom), the Dukes have the necessary talent to bypass the WAF (e.g., custom tamper scripts they built against the target's WAF using a modified version of sqlmap) as well as the understanding of how to build a web shell against PGSQL and DB2 backends. Thus, the TCap of the Dukes TCom is high enough to bypass all of the Difficulty.
In this case, the target web servers happen to also be connected to at least one Microsoft Domain through BeyondTrust PowerBroker or winbind, and the Dukes utilize the getent(1) utility to dump the users as well as laterally move into the network through SMBRelay and JASBUG. Let's say that the Domain has a trust relationship back to the Microsoft Forest that eventually gives the Dukes Forest Administrator access, and thus read-write to all domains including ones hosting services such as SAP ERP and SAP S/4 HANA, in addition to Oracle Hyperion, HMIS, Essbase, and JDE. These services also host databases that contain the employee, partner, contractor, and customer records -- in addition to financial records, company-wide financial services, and intellectual property. At this point, the Dukes install persistence layers that allow them to act as system administrators with an average longevity of 5 years (typically 3-9 years). At this point, the VaR is the entire company's top line growth -- all of its sales; all of its revenue-generating business.
Do you rate such as scenario as critical? Do you use bold or red in your compromise-assessment report? According to FAIR, the VaR should be shown in monetary amounts, such as US Dollars.