What is the chance that my WiFi passphrase has the same WPA2 hash as a password present in an adversary's character based brute force password search space, after a 30% is searched.
WiFi PSK WPA2 uses my secret (randomly chosen words) passphrase, my SSID (not random), and a 32-bit iteration counter to derive a base key through PBKDF2.
Suppose an adversary uses a simple character based exhaustive search in a search space that covers all SHA1 hashes, in order to guess my WiFi key (PSK). My long passphrase is not within that password search space. Given the assumption of an exhaustive search, the hash of my passphrase (+SSID+counter) must clash with at least one hash of guesses tried within the search space of my adversary.
What is the chance that, if my adversary searches through, for example, 30% of that character based brute force search space, my passphrase's hash is found because it has the same (clash) hash as a member within that 30% space? Does the fact that my phrase is not a member of my adversary's space, influence the calculations given in What is the collision chance of a 128-bit hashing function if it is always fed with 256-bits of data?
The reason I know my passphrase is not within the password based search space is the following: A simple brute force exhaustive search on a 160 bits hash would at most test a 25 char length password like uAQn]uG#{3iM1r^jyxL5!uB@*, which corresponds to around 160 bits, if chars are randomly chosen
My passphrase exist of 6 randomly chosen words, the minimum that Diceware recommends currently, such as ListChaferInsureFinnDipperManger containing 32 characters.