The answer will vary wildly depending upon the habits and security-awareness of the person in question. However, we can come to some conclusions depending on the "type" of person. At least, we can if we simplify people into one of two categories:
People who use computers to generate truly random passwords
aka people with "good" security awareness. This is easy. None of these people will have passwords in your list. Even with just a random 8 digit alphanumeric string (which is not really a strong password anymore) there are ~2e14 possible password combinations, which means that the odds of finding one of those passwords on a list with 10 million passwords is just 1 in 5 million. Better than winning the lottery, but still pretty bad. Personally I use 16 character-long random passwords (which is probably quite common), so then we're looking at ~5e28 possible passwords and therefore tiny odds of selecting one on your list (presuming your list even has 16 character-long passwords on it).
People who pick their own easy-to-remember passwords
As is generally well known, people tend to reuse a lot of passwords, and a lot of common passwords are used by many people. However, it can be very difficult to actually calculate the frequency with which particular passwords are used. For instance, most studies of password dumps find that
123456 is the most common password. This article pegs the frequency of that password at 0.6%, but as discussed in that article there are many caveats. My own cursory reading of this plot suggests that the top 25 most common passwords might account for something like 10% of all passwords. It's hard to extrapolate that to the top 10 million passwords though.
As my first link suggests though, there are likely many caveats. For instance, if you ask someone to pick a password for their bank account they may try harder than
123456. Indeed, there is some evidence that people are getting better at passwords in recent times, and many of these data sets are based off of leaks that are a few years old. Those are just two of many potential gotchas that make it hard to estimate for sure what the odds are that some random user's password might be in your list.
Again though, it very much depends on the person. If you are talking about the kind of person who picks
123456 for their password, then there is a 100% chance that their password will be in your list of 10 million passwords. If you are talking about someone who generates long random passwords, then there is probably a 0% chance that their password is in your list. If you're talking about someone in the middle, then who knows.