Based on this question:

How many qubits are needed to factor 2048-bit RSA keys on a quantum computer?

It's going to take 20-30 years for quantum computers to reach that state but some people are giving much shorter estimates. So what is the most probable estimate?

Obviously, I'm just asking about an estimate. I want to know is it possible that they start breaking RSA like next year?! or maybe 5-6 years, or...?

Do we even need to worry about this or has a good solution already been proposed?

  • 3
    I don't think anyone can give even a reasonably good estimate to this question. There's simply too many unknowns. It's more than simply increasing the amount of qubits. One of the current problems is simply maintaining a quantum state for a long period of time. You can't provide estimates on breakthroughs. This is still within the realm of edge science, not just silicon process shrinks/Moore's law. – Steve Sether Oct 2 '18 at 18:54
  • unless something wildly unexpected by experts happens, you have at least 10 years before the first small RSA keys are broken. – dandavis Oct 2 '18 at 18:57
  • As far as solutions, a new science has been created just for that purpose, post-quantum cryptography. – postoronnim Oct 3 '18 at 13:12