Based on this question:

How many qubits are needed to factor 2048-bit RSA keys on a quantum computer?

It's going to take 20-30 years for quantum computers to reach that state but some people are giving much shorter estimates. So what is the most probable estimate?

Obviously, I'm just asking about an estimate. I want to know is it possible that they start breaking RSA like next year?! or maybe 5-6 years, or...?

Do we even need to worry about this or has a good solution already been proposed?

closed as primarily opinion-based by forest, Tom K., Steffen Ullrich, AndrolGenhald, schroeder Nov 13 '18 at 19:52

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • 3
    I don't think anyone can give even a reasonably good estimate to this question. There's simply too many unknowns. It's more than simply increasing the amount of qubits. One of the current problems is simply maintaining a quantum state for a long period of time. You can't provide estimates on breakthroughs. This is still within the realm of edge science, not just silicon process shrinks/Moore's law. – Steve Sether Oct 2 '18 at 18:54
  • unless something wildly unexpected by experts happens, you have at least 10 years before the first small RSA keys are broken. – dandavis Oct 2 '18 at 18:57
  • As far as solutions, a new science has been created just for that purpose, post-quantum cryptography. – postoronnim Oct 3 '18 at 13:12