It is generally said that 2048-bit RSA keys are roughly equivalent to 112-bit symmetric keys and 2048-bit RSA keys are "sufficient for commercial use until around the year 2030" (https://security.stackexchange.com/a/65180/189448).

What is a rough estimate for when AES, RSA, and ECC keys of n bits are unsafe for amatuers?

"Unsafe" as in a tech-savvy person of medium income can decrypt a given message within 2 years.

closed as primarily opinion-based by Daisetsu, Tobi Nary, Overmind, forest, Rory Alsop Feb 24 at 14:45

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • One caveat I would add is that there's always the possibility of an exploit being found which takes the time to crack your key to a feasible time for an attacker. Like we saw today with the new TLS 1.3 vulnerability published. – Daisetsu Feb 10 at 3:58
  • @Daisetsu I'm sorry but I really don't see how the possible duplicate is a duplicate. Can you elaborate? – facjqhpcc Feb 10 at 4:02
  • @Daisetsu The TLS 1.3 vuln has been disclosed a few months ago. It's not really new. I'm also assuming the technology grows steadily and no sudden breakthroughs – facjqhpcc Feb 10 at 4:03
  • Oh wow. I don't know what happened to that link. Totally the wrong one. – Daisetsu Feb 10 at 4:03
  • Slight correction maybe: 2048-bit RSA keys are equivalent in strength to 112-bit symmetric keys not 128-bit. See here for source, via NIST I think. – Ellie Kesselman Feb 10 at 4:46

For this kind of purposes, there is a website, keylength.com, that uses various academic and private organizations mathematical formulas to approximate.

If you select 2030 you will get the results.

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  • Yes, but these estimates are more for "safe against state actors" aren't they? I'm only looking for estimates against, say, a tech-saavy friend. – facjqhpcc Feb 23 at 7:13
  • It is about the resources you have. Have a look at this. – kelalaka Feb 23 at 7:16

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