My answer assumes that your attacker is "skilled in the art" of doing this sort of work.
getting the apk
It would take less time than it took you to write the question.
decompiling
It depends a bit on the speed of the computer, but it should be on the order of a few minutes.
finding the function to hook
If you go way out of your way to try to make this non-obvious... perhaps a day? It is a bit difficult to say in the abstract, as it depends a lot on the size and complexity of the app, whether this is just a single "function" or if the work is substantially more involved, etc.
Suffice it to say that anyone who wants to take the time will be able to find what needs to be changed.
compiling
It depends a bit on the speed of the computer and the size of the code base, but again it should be measured in minutes.
installing
It would take less time than it took you to write the question.
In this scenario how much more security could code obfuscation give?
A few years back, I was told by one security researcher that using simple ProGuard obfuscation actually made it easier to do this sort of attack.
There are more powerful obfuscators out there, including ProGuard's "big brother" DexGuard. Similarly, there are people who create de-obfuscators, tools that knock DexGuard-level obfuscation down to something more akin to ProGuard. For example, DexGuard tries to encrypt as much of your app as it can; de-obfuscators would generate a decrypted edition of the code.
Hence, the benefit of high-level obfuscators varies, based upon the current state of the arms race between obfuscator developers and de-obfuscator developers. I can't say with any certainty where the arms race stands now, let alone when somebody else reads this answer years from now.
I liken obfuscators to the old tale of two hunters in the woods being chased by a bear. If you were one of the hunters, you don't have to run faster than the bear to escape. You just have to run faster than the other hunter. In the case of obfuscators, the objective is to make fussing with your app unappealing, causing attackers to move onto other potentially easier targets. The problem with this approach is that it assumes that the attacker does not care about your app specifically, that your app is merely one target among many. Attackers who care about attacking your app for specific reasons will not behave that way, and they will spend the time to crack it. In other words, running faster than the other hunter assumes that the bear is not pissed off at you specifically.